Often when a storm rolls into central Missouri, the sky opens and huge raindrops fall hard and fast. If the ground is already too wet or too dry, the landscape can't absorb the water quick enough, and it pools into streams that rush down the streets.
These are the conditions of a flash flood, and Missouri is now seeing more of them.
"Three-inch, daily rainfall events, so 24-hour totals where you get greater than 3 inches, usually that's enough to cause some headaches and flooding with those events, and we have seen those increase over the past 30 years," State Climatologist Zack Leasor said.
Missouri has rainfall records dating back to the 1800s, thanks to individuals across the state collecting measurements, Leasor said. The state usually gets around 40 inches of rain per year, much of that falling during the spring and summer.
"You get a storm that's slow moving, it's got a lot of energy for rainfall, and you can get 3 inches of rain in just a couple hours — and that causes a lot of problems," he said.
Problems for infrastructure, homes and roads. But flash flooding is also a major threat to human safety, as vehicles and people can get trapped in rushing waters.
Over time, heavy rains have changed the duties of emergency response agencies.
Columbia Fire Chief Brian Schaeffer said when he began his firefighting career more than 30 years ago, having to get in a boat to rescue a person in flood waters was not a regular part of the job.
"It's gotten to the point where incident after incident after incident has occurred, where people have died tragically, and when something like that happens ... the people in the community look to the fire department as being the solution," Schaeffer said.
Is it climate change?
Now, Missouri frequently experiences flood warnings during the rainy season. April through October are the state's wettest months, and Leasor said mean annual rainfall has been increasing.
Low lying areas are at elevated risk for a flash flood, and standing or rushing water can accumulate in urban areas where there's a lot of pavement and buildings and less open soil to absorb the rain.
As evidenced by its name, a flash flood happens fast, often when stormwater drainage systems get overwhelmed. Just a few inches of water can stall a vehicle, and a foot or more can move a car.
According to the National Weather Service, flooding is one of the leading causes of weather-related deaths in the U.S., second to heat.
"I think we vastly underestimate what moving water can do," said Matt Beckwith, chief meteorologist at KOMU 8. "Most flash flooding deaths occur in a motor vehicle, which means that most flash flooding deaths are preventable."
When the forecast calls for multiple days of rain, Beckwith is watching daily rain totals closely to assess the threat of flash floods.
"An inch on day one is not as significant as an inch on day five when the ground's already saturated," he said.
Leasor said it can be difficult to pinpoint the relationship between severe weather events and climate change, but they're certainly linked. Warmer temperatures overall can lead to a lengthier severe weather season with more storms and also increase the potential for extreme precipitation.
"What we're seeing, especially since about 1990, is more extreme rainfall events," Leasor said. "So your heaviest precipitation, that's where we're seeing the strongest increase."
This year, there has been at least one flash flood warning somewhere in Missouri in all but one week since the beginning of April.
"We're definitely seeing downpours more often and we're seeing, as a result, flash flooding more often," Beckwith said.
To Schaeffer and his team at the Columbia Fire Department, the link between climate change and severe weather is ultimately besides the point; it's their job to respond, no matter the emergency.
"We're not going to argue about whether it's climate change or not. The reality is it is changing," Schaeffer said.
Training to respond to increasing risk
When the forecast calls for storms, Schaeffer and the Columbia Fire Department get prepared.
Staff are checking up on roads and streams in Columbia that regularly flood. Firefighters make sure the swim gear, life jackets, rescue equipment and boats are ready to go. The department adjusts staffing levels to ensure enough swift water trained firefighters are available to respond.
A lot of these protocols have been upgraded or expanded in just the last few years. Schaffer said the Fire Department has purchased more water rescue equipment, two new boats and has sent staff across the country for additional water rescue training.
"We're all in, and it's not just the flavor of the day, it's an institutional cultural change towards recognizing this risk," Schaeffer said.
In 2024, after days of rain, Bear Creek in north Columbia flooded, trapping two residents. Both the Columbia Fire Department and the Boone County Fire Protection District responded to the call. During the rescue, the boat lost power and capsized, and Boone County Assistant Chief Matt Tobben drowned.
In an incident report published after the accident, the Columbia Fire Department committed to increased frequency of water rescue training and to collaborate on those exercises with the Boone County Fire Protection District.
"It is a serious business and a lot of times there are some variables that are unpredictable but we do everything we can with training, experience … and more training, and more training," Schaeffer said.
Overconfidence can be dangerous
Columbia firefighters have responded to about five water rescues so far this year. Gale Blomenkamp at the neighboring Boone County Fire Protection District said they conduct about half a dozen or more water rescues annually.
"There's three things about Missouri that happen every year: one, it gets really hot; two, it gets really cold; and three, it floods," Blomenkamp said. "That's just the standard for us here in mid-Missouri."
When severe thunderstorms and the flash flooding they cause become commonplace, growing familiarity with those conditions among the public could lead to overconfidence, complacency and risky choices.
"Many of these people have probably driven through those flood waters multiple times and never had any issue," Blomenkamp said. "Then one time they drive through, it's a little deeper than normal, or maybe the water is moving a little quicker than they anticipate."
Emergency officials urge Missourians to delay traveling during heavy rainstorms, know where flooding may occur on your route and never drive through moving water.
As the risk for flash flooding increases in Missouri, Schaeffer said the Columbia Fire Department will keep adapting to make sure the department and the public are ready when the rains come.
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