A Cole County judge ruled Friday that a new Missouri congressional map lawmakers approved last year is in effect.
While the decision will be appealed, Cole County Judge Brian Stumpe's decision is a win for a national effort to create more GOP-leaning congressional districts before this year's midterm elections.
Missouri Republican lawmakers last year redrew the congressional districts at the behest of President Donald Trump. It's part of a national GOP strategy to make enough House districts safe for Republicans to keep control of the U.S. House.
But the group People Not Politicians turned in signatures to place the new map up for a November 2026 vote. And representatives from that group contended submitting those signatures prevented the 2025 map from going into effect.
After Secretary of State Denny Hoskins said late last year that signature submission didn't prevent the new lines from going into effect, the ACLU of Missouri filed a lawsuit in Cole County Circuit Court.
Stumpe ruled that the plaintiffs did not have standing to bring the case. He also said that there's not a justiciable dispute for him to rule on right now, adding that "any opinion rendered by this Court at this juncture would be merely an advisory opinion that could become moot if the Secretary determines the petition insufficient."
"Even if this Court were to grant Plaintiffs' requested relief, the referendum could still fail for lack of sufficient signatures, rendering Plaintiffs' alleged injury speculative. Until the question of sufficiency is resolved, Plaintiffs' claimed injury depends on contingencies that may never occur."
He also rejected the ACLU of Missouri's argument that merely turning in signatures prevents a targeted law from going into effect. That's what happened in 2017, when Republican Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft halted "right to work" from being active after opponents turned in referendum signatures.
"Due to the possibility of invalid signatures, [state law] requires the Secretary to issue a certificate setting forth whether the petition contains a sufficient number of valid signatures. These various statutory verification and review processes serve critical functions in preventing abuse of the referendum process and establishing legal sufficiency," Stumpe wrote. "Without verification requirements, any group could suspend legislation merely by submitting boxes of invalid signatures, signatures of unregistered voters, forged names, or other fraudulent submissions."
Citing preliminary data from Hoskins' office, People Not Politicians announced earlier this month that it surpassed the signature threshold needed for the new map to go on the November ballot.
Attorney General Catherine Hanaway said in a statement: "A win on all counts. The Missouri FIRST Map remains in effect."
The ACLU of Missouri slammed the decision and said it would immediately appeal. The case is likely to end up at the Missouri Supreme Court.
"This order defies over a century of judicial precedent while rendering Missourians' constitutional right to the referendum process second to the will of politicians," the statement read. "The ACLU of Missouri is committed to our state constitution's founding principle that all power is derived from the people, not loaned from the government. We will immediately appeal this decision."
If the high court ends up upholding Stumpe's decision, it would be a major boost to GOP efforts to add another Missouri Republican to the House. That's because lawmakers redrew Missouri's Kansas City-based 5th District to be more Republican leaning and much more difficult for Democratic Congressman Emanuel Cleaver to win another term.
Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas have redrawn their maps to be more favorable to Republicans. California voters backed a ballot item last year that could add five Democratic seats, while a Utah judge adopted a map that includes a more favorable Democratic district. Virginia, New York and Maryland could also change their maps to produce more Democratic districts, while Florida could redraw its districts to create more GOP-leaning seats.
This story has been updated with comments from the ACLU and Attorney General Catherine Hanaway.
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