While Missouri Republicans are not in danger of losing control of the legislature or statewide offices, a troubled national environment could sink a slew of critical ballot items the party is supporting.
With President Donald Trump's national approval ratings low and Democrats primed to turn out in large numbers, even the most optimistic Republicans say that passing critical ballot initiatives and defending competitive state legislative seats will be challenging.
They're looking to two parts of the state that have gotten bluer since Trump came on the scene as key tests: Springfield and St. Louis County. Pulling off wins in those places could require convincing a more diverse set of voters that they should stick with a party that's under intense scrutiny.
"We are all about building coalitions in this part of the state," said Greene County Presiding Commissioner Bob Dixon. "I think it's going to be a tough year, but we have tough candidates who will get the job done."
Pushing unity
During the final night of Lincoln Days, U.S. Sen. Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma noted how Senate Republicans now often disagree with some of Trump's key domestic and foreign policy decisions. He pointed to Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul becoming a loud critic of the president's tariffs and his decision to raid Venezuela.
But Mullin also said: "I will take any Republican over any Democrat, period," pointing specifically to how he'd help get Maine Sen. Susan Collins reelected even though she votes against the party at times.
"When we start looking at it from the perspective of purity, we start losing the fight," Mullin said.
In some respects, Missouri Republicans have followed through on Mullins' advice.
After years of intraparty warfare, particularly in the Missouri Senate, Republicans managed to pass major initiatives in 2025. They include placing the state in control of the St. Louis Police Department, the elimination of capital gains taxes and the passage of a more GOP-leaning congressional map.
Secretary of State Denny Hoskins often clashed with GOP leaders when he was a member of the Missouri Senate. But he said Senate factions are getting along better, thanks perhaps to how more conservative members are more involved in passing high-profile legislation.
"I think the party is more united than it was a couple years ago, and I think that's because Republicans have gone further to the right," Hoskins said.
Unlike 2022 or 2026, Republicans aren't engaged in expensive or antagonistic primaries. Even Democrats concede that Republican state Auditor Scott Fitzpatrick is favored as the only statewide official who is up for election this year.
"I've done a pretty good job of being the auditor, of doing the job of the auditor, and not using the office for political grandstanding," Fitzpatrick said. "Obviously, I'm a conservative. People know that I have a voting record, and I'm proud of it. But I'm also here to do a job. And I'm going to continue to do that job."
National headwinds
The Missouri GOP's electoral dominance and a detente among factions may not be enough to prevent a bad national environment from hurting state Republicans this year.
The upcoming Missouri election cycle will feature critical ballot initiatives, including a proposal to repeal a 2024 constitutional amendment protecting abortion rights and another substantially curtailing the initiative petition process. Missourians could also render a verdict on a plan to eliminate the state income tax and vote on a referendum deciding the fate of new congressional lines.
All of these proposals will have well-funded and well-organized opposition campaigns. And as former House Speaker Elijah Haahr pointed out, Trump not being on the ballot poses challenges for the Missouri GOP.
"What we've seen over the past few cycles is that when Trump's on the ballot, his voters come out. They come out heavy. Republicans win big," Haahr said. "When he's not been on the ballot, Republicans have really struggled with how to get that coalition together. And so that's going to be a test for the Republicans of Missouri. Can we put the Trump group together in an off year?"
A shaky economy and Trump's policies on immigration and foreign policy sparking widespread backlash could spur extremely high Democratic turnout to the polls.
Not only could Trump's low approval ratings imperil ballot initiatives, but GOP state Rep. George Hruza says it could also make things harder for Republicans in places where Trump is perennially unpopular — like where he lives in St. Louis County. That could affect state legislative contests and, possibly, Republican U.S. Rep. Ann Wagner's reelection bid in the 2nd Congressional District.
"I think history does suggest it will be very challenging," Hruza said. "There's no question that we have an uphill battle to make sure to get our message out."
Gov. Mike Kehoe acknowledged that abortion rights supporters will likely spend heavily to defend the constitutional amendment known as Amendment 3 voters approved in 2024 to protect abortion rights.
Kehoe and his political operation are backing a 2026 proposal – which also carries the label of Amendment 3 – that would roll back those protections. He said they're building a campaign that can deal with a bad national environment.
"I'm personally going to work really hard to raise the resources to make sure our yes initiative on Amendment 3 stands a chance and ask Missourians to vote with us," Kehoe said.
Lessons from previous elections
In 2006, Claire McCaskill won a nationally watched race for the U.S. Senate. And her fellow Democrats prevailed in contests for state auditor and some key state legislative posts. George W. Bush was in his sixth year as president with low approval ratings, much like Trump now.
There are key differences between 2026 and 2006. Democrats aren't favored to win state Senate seats in northeast Missouri or the Rolla area.
And in Fitzpatrick's view, there isn't evidence that broader disagreement with Trump nationally will lead to Missourians gravitating toward Democrats, especially in rural parts of the state where they need to gain ground.
"They used to be the party of the working class. Republicans are now the party of the working class," Fitzpatrick said. "And so, I think Democrats are going to have to figure out their identity and give people something to vote for instead of something to vote against before they really can become competitive in rural Missouri."
One veteran of the 2006 election cycle said winning in places like Springfield is possible.
Dixon, the Greene County presiding commissioner, served in the Missouri House and Senate for 16 years. He said winning in 2006 was difficult, but possible because of outreach to Democratic and independent voters.
"It was a brutal year, but we did learn and do the 'all politics is local thing,'" Dixon said. "With the outreach to sensible-thinking Democrats who really were trying to just discern: 'OK, I hear all this messaging, but what's the best thing for my neighborhood? My community? My city? My part of the state?'"
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