In the final week of the 2026 midterm election, ad spending data suggests the core battle is less about stopping a Democratic wave in the House, and more about figuring out how high it crests.
An NPR analysis finds the final competitive House landscape is expansive, including 70 districts where both parties are investing at least six figures per district into their final days of messaging.
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That includes more than $10 million each in toss up districts in Michigan, North Carolina, New York and Florida; seven figure ad buys in deep-red communities across Tennessee, Oklahoma and Arkansas and last-minute resources to districts where gerrymandering by Republicans could backfire.
In a midterm environment that disfavors the party in power, Republicans' narrow 218-214 seat advantage in the House appears all but certain to give way to Democratic control. The latest ratings from the Cook Political Report finds Democrats favored in 220 seats, 17 listed as "toss-ups" and another 30 that are potentially competitive but lean toward the GOP.
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Competitive races on paper
Most of the seats that saw narrow margins in the 2024 presidential election cycle have shifted the way of the Democrats, especially in the 10 districts that voted for one party's presidential candidate and the other party's House nominee.
That includes seats held by Democratic Reps. Adam Gray (CA-13), Nellie Pou (NJ-09) and Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez (WA-03) and retiring Republican Rep. Don Bacon (NE-02).
All four of those districts have seen Republicans slash ad reservations in recent weeks, according to AdImpact data.
The latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll finds Democrats have a 10-point advantage among registered voters and 8 points with likely voters on the generic congressional ballot. That means a far broader number of seats are competitive on paper, before accounting for candidate quality or outside spending.
Cost of living remains the top concern for voters, as rising gas prices, tariffs and the ongoing war in Iran factor into economic woes for many Americans. At the same time, a record number of Congressional retirement announcements has been amplified by an anti-incumbency streak in primary elections.
A wave of mid-decade redistricting after a Supreme Court decision that further rolled back part of the Voting Rights Act further scrambled the map, as Republicans shifted boundary lines to add more conservative voters into districts held by Democratic Reps. Marcy Kaptur (OH-09), Don Davis (NC-01), Shomari Figures (AL-02) and Darren Soto (FL-09).
(Democrats did the same in California for the districts currently held by Republican Reps. James Gallagher (CA-01), David Valadao (CA-22), Ken Calvert (CA-41), Darrell Issa (CA-48) and independent Kevin Kiley (CA-06)).
Only Figures and Soto are in districts that are rated as currently favoring Republicans.
Big spending in many places
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As millions of voters have already cast their ballots in the midterms, there are dozens of races Democrats and Republicans consider worthy of heavy investment in the final hours to help shape the outcome.
Most expensive among them: Michigan's 7th District and North Carolina's 1st District —each with more than $12 million in spending planned; Florida's 14th, 22nd and 25th Districts; New York's 17th District; Iowa's 2nd and 3rd Districts and a slew of other races that either favor Democrats or are considered toss ups.
They include seats redrawn by Republicans this year to minimize Democratic voting power, like Alabama's 2nd District and Tennessee's 9th District and districts where voters backed Trump in 2024 by more than 10 points like Kentucky's 6th District and Arkansas' 2nd District.
In all, the 70 races that have at least six figures of ad spending from each party voted for Trump by an average of 9 points in 2024.
There are 60 districts that are listed as priorities of both the Democratic and Republican House campaign arms, highlighting the impact of the Trump administration's unpopularity with voters over the last year.
Not every race will end up close or see party control change hands. Many of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Districts In Play," for example, gave Trump closer to 60% of the vote in 2024 and have seen little-to-no ad spend from either party.
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